Lessons

ARB203: Real-life sports arbitrage examples

Below we detail four real-life sports arbitrage examples, each of which is taken from our own arbitrage trading experiences in the past 12 months.

Example 1: Tennis – ATP Beijing – Querrey vs. Lopez

• Pinnacle Sports offered odds of 2.16 on Querrey to win
• Bet365 offered odds of 2.00 on Lopez to win

BetOnValue alerted us to the arb and, after inputting the maximum bet allowed at Bet365 of $990, advised us to place bets as follows:

1. bet $918 on Querrey at Pinnacle Sports; and
2. bet $990 on Lopez at Bet365

…with the possible results as follows:

Match result	Pinnacle Sports wager	Bet365 wager	Overall profit
If Querrey wins –>	Win +$1,065	Loss -$990	+$75 (+3.9%)
If Lopez wins –>	Loss -$918	Win +$990	+$72 (+3.8%)

Result: Querrey won the match, returning a profit of $75 (or 3.9%).

Example 2: Tennis – ATP Valencia – Hewitt vs. Dodig

• Pinnacle Sports offered odds of 1.63 on there being over 2.5 sets
• Bet365 offered odds of 2.85 on there being under 2.5 sets

BetOnValue alerted us to the arb and, after inputting the maximum bet allowed at Bet365 of $1,700, advised us to place bets as follows:

1. bet $2,982 on Over 2.5 sets at Pinnacle Sports; and
2. bet $1,700 on Under 2.5 sets at Bet365

…with the possible results as follows:

Match result	Pinnacle Sports wager	Bet365 wager	Overall profit
If over 2.5 sets –>	Win +$1,864	Loss -$1,700	+$164 (+3.5%)
If under 2.5 sets –>	Loss -$2,982	Win +$3,145	+$163 (+3.5%)

Result: It was a three set match, returning a profit of $164 (or 3.5%).

Example 3: Soccer – Spanish La Liga – Seville vs. Getafe

• Pinnacle Sports offered odds of 2.73 on Seville to win
• Pinnacle Sports offered odds of 3.48 on a draw
• William Hill offered odds of 3.10 on Getafe to win

BetOnValue alerted us to the arb and, after inputting the maximum bet allowed at William Hill of $700, advised us to place bets as follows:

1. bet $795 on Seville at Pinnacle Sports;
2. bet $624 on a draw at Pinnacle Sports; and
3. bet $700 on Getafe at William Hill

…with the possible results as follows:

Match result	Pinnacle Sports wagers	William Hill wager	Overall profit
If Seville wins –>	Win +$751	Loss -$700	+$51 (+2.4%)
If draw –>	Win +$753	Loss -$700	+$53 (+2.5%)
If Getafe wins –>	Loss -$1,419	Win +$1,470	+$51 (+2.4%)

Result: Seville won the match, returning a profit of $51 (or 2.4%).

Example 4: Soccer – Bundesliga – Hannover 96 vs. Nurnberg

• Unibet offered odds of 1.83 on the first goal being scored in the first half
• Pinnacle Sports offered odds of 3.92 on the first goal being scored in the second half
• Pinnacle Sports offered odds of 5.72 on no goal being scored

BetOnValue alerted us to the arb and, after inputting the maximum bet allowed at Unibet of $1,205, advised us to place bets as follows:

1. bet $1,205 on first goal being scored in the first half at Unibet;
2. bet $563 on first goal being scored in the second half at Pinnacle Sports; and
3. bet $386 on no goal being scored at Pinnacle Sports

…with the possible results as follows:

Match result	Pinnacle Sports wagers	Unibet wager	Overall profit
If first goal scored in the first half –>	Loss -$949	Win +$1,000	+$51 (+2.4%)
If first goal scored in the second half –>	Win +$1,258	Loss -$1,205	+$53 (+2.5%)
If no goal scored –>	Win +$1,259	Loss -$1,205	+$54 (+2.5%)

Result: First goal scored in the 21^st minute, returning a profit of $51 (or 2.4%).

Weighting of the overall profit

As you can see in the above sports arbitrage examples, we chose to balance the overall profit as much as possible no matter the outcome of the event.

However, another strategy is to weight the bets such that a higher profit is made if the favourite wins the event, because this is more likely than not. This strategy is easily implemented once you are familiar with placing arbs, and some alert services even offer weighting/biasing as a feature to do the calculations for you.